… today’s yield curve is relatively flat—the result of the Fed having increased shorter-term interest rates since late 2015. If the Fed continues on a course of higher rates, the current yield curve may invert, and that would usually signal an economic slowdown, though not necessarily anything out of the ordinary. There have been many economic slowdowns and 11 outright recessions in my lifetime. Sometimes the best investment bargains present themselves six months or so ahead of recessions, since stock prices usually move before the overall economy. Given this relationship between stock prices and the economy, trying to time investment purchases via economic forecasting usually proves to be fruitless— since forecasting a dynamic economy more than a quarter or two in advance is very difficult.
Dec 2018