Bubbles and Investing Temperament

Jul 2017 //

although we think value/ GARP investing is well positioned for relative success in the coming months and years, nobody can be certain of the timing. There will likely be times when bubbles continue to inflate. What we can say is: (1) there are no instances of aggregate stock prices advancing faster or slower than underlying corporate earnings indefi­nitely; (2) stock market history is filled with instances of unjustified over-popularity or under-popularity of given companies, and eventually over-valuations and under-valuations correct; and (3) following the crowd is seldom, if ever, a successful long-term investment strategy. The key to investment success is leading the crowd. Leading requires diligent research, a patient temperament and a tolerance for being temporarily out of step with conventional wisdom.