Predictions Are as Accurate as a Broken Clock

Dec 2007 //
Cycles
Optimism/Pessimism

So what do market bottoms (or those for individual stocks) look like?  Typically, they don’t look like bottoms at all.  They look and feel like the actual bottom is far lower—thus creating a peak in pessimism that’s necessary for a bottom to form. …the vast majority of investors, including me, won’t recognize a bottom until it’s visible in our rear view mirror.  Many will try to predict a bottom, but their chances of success are about the same as a broken clock showing the correct time.