…with the benefit of hindsight, the progression of events may seem to have been obvious in advance. In reality, this is very seldom the case. Amidst the large amount of economic and financial data available, there will almost always be some data that support the case for rare future events, but finding that data and giving it critical importance—overriding all other data—is all but impossible … So for most investors, buying or selling in advance of some anticipated event can be an exercise in futility. Indeed, it can be—and sometimes is—worse than that, because the near-term future tends to be less predictable than many investors realize. Investors who find themselves zigzagging at the slightest provocation often end up with about as much success as a dog chasing its tail.
Apr 2016